Increasing impacts on summer extreme precipitation and atmospheric heatwaves in eastern China



Current and future changes in extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and atmospheric heatwaves (AHWs) are studied based on precipitation and near-surface maximum temperature (Tasmax) data obtained from observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Further, the linkage of such events with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), tropical cyclones, and climate indices are explored. The results indicate that EPEs and AHWs are becoming increasingly frequent in Eastern China, particularly in the southern, southwest, and southeast coast. By comparing the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585 and SSP245, we hypotheses that the increased three-fold of AHW days may compresses the precipitation time-window, the number of EPEs and amount of extreme precipitation (AEP) has increased. SSTA variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) suggests a significant positive correlation with precipitation in Southern China and the southeastern coast. The SSTA variability over the Western Pacific (WP), IO, and TNA has a positive anomalous influence on Tasmax in most areas of Eastern China. The intensification and slow decay of land falling tropical cyclones are also contribute to EPEs. The responses of precipitation and Tasmax to the WP subtropical high, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, IO Dipole, and North Atlantic Oscillation vary by region, and the impacts of these climate indices on Tasmax are opposite to those on precipitation. The WP subtropical high and IO Dipole play a critical role in positive precipitation and Tasmax anomalies.

Publication Status
Atmospheric Research